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Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 24 – 28 August 2026

Followme News Desk  |  August 24, 2026  |  All times GMT+8

This week's economic calendar is focused on German GDP (QoQ) Q2, U.S. CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Core PCE Price Index (YoY and MoM), U.S. GDP (QoQ) Q2, Durable Goods Orders (MoM) and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. Tuesday carries the early movers, German GDP, Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. Before Wednesday becomes the week's centrepiece with Core PCE, GDP and Durable Goods Orders all dropping at 20:30 in the same session. Thursday closes with Initial Jobless Claims.

Core PCE is the standout release. After last week's CPI deceleration and the FOMC Minutes, markets are already leaning toward earlier Fed cuts and a PCE print that confirms inflation is cooling at the Fed's own preferred measure would be the clearest confirmation yet that the door to rate cuts is opening. A hold at 3.40% would complicate that view. Either way, Wednesday at 20:30 is where the week's real verdict gets delivered.

Key Events This Week

🕐 All times shown are GMT+8

Macro Analysis

🇩🇪 German GDP (QoQ) Q2

German GDP for Q2 is forecast at 0.10% on a quarterly basis, a significant step down from 0.30% prior. That's the kind of deceleration that's hard to explain away. Germany's economy has been struggling to find traction, and a quarterly reading this close to flat suggests the recovery is losing steam rather than building on it. If confirmed, it would add to the case that the ECB needs to keep easing, which is typically EUR-negative. A surprise to the upside, particularly anything back toward 0.30% or above, would give EUR some breathing room and reduce the pressure on the ECB to cut aggressively. Either way, this print lands on Tuesday before Wednesday's much heavier U.S. data session, so it will set the early-week cross-market tone before the real action starts.

🇺🇸 U.S. CB Consumer Confidence

CB Consumer Confidence for August is forecast at 92.4, barely above 92.2 prior essentially no change. A reading this close to forecast won't move markets much, but any meaningful deviation is worth noting. Consumer confidence has been sitting in a relatively narrow range, and a break higher would suggest that households are feeling better about the outlook despite the recent softening in the labour market. A drop below 92 would raise questions about whether the consumer is starting to pull back, which matters a lot heading into Wednesday's PCE and GDP data.

🇺🇸 U.S. New Home Sales

New Home Sales for July are forecast at 609K, a pullback from 618K prior. Housing has been one of the areas most sensitive to the current rate environment, and a decline of this size would suggest buyer activity is softening as rate expectations continue to shift. A reading close to or below forecast would add to the narrative of a cooling economy without necessarily alarming markets. The move from 618K to 609K is noticeable but not dramatic. A surprise beat above 620K would be a more interesting result, suggesting buyers are returning faster than expected despite still-elevated mortgage rates.

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index

This is the standout release of the week. Core PCE (YoY) for July is forecast at 3.30%, easing from 3.40% prior, while Core PCE (MoM) is forecast at 0.20%, down from 0.30% prior. Both measures decelerating in the same month send a consistent disinflationary signal and, since PCE is the Fed's actual preferred inflation gauge, a reading that confirms this slowdown would carry real weight. A YoY print at 3.30% or below would accelerate rate cut pricing meaningfully and weaken USD to the end of the week. A surprise hold at 3.40% or above on the annual rate would complicate the easing narrative and give Dollar Bulls something to push back with, particularly after last week's FOMC Minutes may have already moved the market in the dovish direction.

🇺🇸 U.S. GDP (QoQ) Q2

GDP for Q2 is forecast at 2.10%, matching the prior reading, a confirmation rather than a revision. In isolation, GDP holding at 2.10% is a solid number that shows the economy kept its footing through the second quarter. The interesting dynamic here is that it lands alongside Core PCE and Durable Goods Orders all at 20:30 on Wednesday, which means the market will be processing growth and inflation signals simultaneously. If PCE decelerates, but GDP holds at 2.10%, the Fed's task gets easier cooling inflation alongside resilient growth is close to the soft-landing scenario that justifies cutting rates without rushing. A downward revision to GDP below 2.10%, especially if paired with soft PCE, would accelerate the easing narrative and hit USD harder.

🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders for July are forecast at 1.60%, a sharp recovery from -4.00% prior. Last month's -4.00% was a notable miss that raised concern about business investment pulling back, so a return to positive territory at 1.60% would go some way toward reassuring markets that the drop was more of a one-month story than the start of a trend. A reading at or above 1.60% would support the view that capital expenditure is recovering and add a USD-positive layer to Wednesday's data session. A miss that keeps the number below 1.00%, or worse, stays negative, would compound any concern about the investment outlook and weigh on USD alongside whatever PCE shows.

🇺🇸 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Claims are forecast at 202K, ticking up from 200K prior, a tiny move that won't generate headlines on its own. But the context matters: after last week's soft NFP and the general softening across labour market data, any meaningful jump above 210K would revive concern that the jobs market is cracking more quickly than the headline data suggests. A reading below 200K would push back on that narrative and give the Fed one less reason to feel urgency about cutting. In a week where Wednesday's data already carries most of the weight, Thursday's claims serve more as a cross-check than a market mover, unless it's a clear outlier.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders

Wednesday is where this week lives. Four releases, at 20:30, Core PCE, GDP, Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims, the following morning, the Monday window that could meaningfully shift how markets are pricing the Fed's next move. If Core PCE confirms the deceleration from 3.40% to 3.30% and GDP holds at 2.10%, the soft-landing story gets a clean data point that justifies earlier cuts without signalling economic distress. That combination would likely weaken USD as rate cut timing gets pulled forward.

If PCE stays stuck at 3.40% and GDP comes in at or above 2.10%, the picture is more complicated, the economy is running warm but inflation isn't cooling as fast as hoped. That kind of reading could briefly support USD by pushing back on the most aggressive cut pricing, even if the medium-term direction remains dovish. Tuesday's German GDP, Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data set the early-week tone, but they won't move USD dramatically unless they produce genuine outliers. The real story starts Wednesday at 20:30.

🟩 Bullish USD Scenario — Stronger Dollar Case

• Core PCE Holds at 3.40% YoY — If inflation fails to decelerate as expected, the rate cut timeline gets pushed back and USD finds support heading into the end of the week.
• Core PCE MoM Stays at 0.30% — A monthly reading that doesn't slow would suggest the PCE deceleration story isn't as clean as the forecast implies, giving the Fed less reason to move quickly.
• GDP Revised Higher Above 2.10% — An upward revision to Q2 growth alongside sticky PCE would be the clearest bullish USD combination Wednesday can deliver.
• Durable Goods Orders Beat 1.60% — A strong recovery in business investment after last month's -4.00% would show the capex pullback was a blip, reinforcing the economic resilience narrative.
• Claims Stay Below 200K on Thursday — A fresh low in jobless claims the day after Wednesday's data would cap off a constructive week for USD and remove one argument for near-term Fed easing.
• German GDP Misses 0.10% — A flat or negative German quarterly reading would weigh on EUR and give USD relative support across major pairs heading into Wednesday's U.S. data.

🌡 Wild Cards — High Whipsaw Risk

• PCE Misses While GDP Beats — Cooling inflation alongside stronger-than-expected growth is actually the soft-landing ideal, but markets may struggle to decide whether to sell or buy USD when both signals arrive simultaneously.
• Durable Goods Stays Negative — If the recovery from -4.00% fails to materialise and orders come flat or negative again, it would add an unexpected bearish layer to Wednesday's session that could amplify any USD weakness from soft PCE.
• German GDP Surprises to the Upside — A quarterly reading well above 0.10% would give EUR a meaningful lift on Tuesday and could set a risk-on tone that carries into Wednesday's USD session, complicating how markets interpret the U.S. data.
• Consumer Confidence Drops Below 92 — A soft confidence reading on Tuesday, before the much bigger Wednesday data, could start USD lower heading into PCE and GDP in a way that amplifies any bearish reaction.
• Four-Release Wednesday — All four numbers at 20:30 at once. Even if most are broadly in line, the sheer volume of data hitting simultaneously often produces sharper initial moves that reverse before the dust settles.
• Claims Jump to 210K or Above Thursday — A clear claims miss the day after Wednesday's data would extend any USD weakness and make it harder for the Dollar to recover before the weekend.

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario — Weaker Dollar Case

• Core PCE YoY Falls to 3.30% or Below — The Fed's own inflation gauge decelerating confirms the disinflation trend and immediately pulls forward rate cut expectations, weakening USD to the end of the week.
• Core PCE MoM Drops to 0.20% as Forecast — Both monthly and annual PCE moving in the right direction at the same time is a clean disinflationary signal that leaves the Fed with less reason to hold.
• GDP Revised Down Below 2.10% — A downward revision to Q2 growth alongside soft PCE would be the most bearish combination Wednesday can produce for USD.
• Durable Goods Miss Again — A second consecutive month of negative or near-flat orders would suggest business investment is genuinely pulling back, adding to the economic softening narrative.
• German GDP Disappoints at Flat or Below — A weak quarterly German reading on Tuesday would raise ECB easing expectations, but if EUR sells off hard it could set a cautious risk tone that also limits USD demand.
• Claims Rise Above 205K on Thursday — Even a modest miss above 202K, coming after Wednesday's soft data, would make it very hard for USD to find buyers heading into the weekend.

Check out the full calendar here:  Followme Economic Calendar Tool
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