The AUD/USD pair weakened for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. After a minor technical rebound to the 0.6920-0.6925 area during the Asian session, the Aussie was immediately hit by a wave of aggressive selling, dragging it down to its lowest level since April 7.
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✅ Australian Inflation Mixed: Hawkish RBA Loses Its Sharpness
The release of daily inflation data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this morning yielded conflicting results, failing to provide sufficient fuel to boost the AUD exchange rate:
- 🔸Headline CPI Flattens (4.0% YoY): Australia's headline Consumer Price Index slowed from 4.2% to 4.0% YoY in May—recording the lowest inflation rate in three months.
- 🔸Core CPI Rampage (3.6% YoY): Conversely, the benchmark Trimmed Mean inflation data actually crept up by 0.4% month-on-month, pushing the annual core inflation rate soaring to 3.6% YoY.
- 🔸RBA Rate Hike Threat: With core inflation still stuck well above its mandated 2% to 3% target, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reiterated its stance that it will not hesitate to implement further monetary tightening.
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✅ US Dollar Strength: Tech Stock Storm & Fed Toughness by Kevin Warsh
The US dollar acted as a global liquidity sponge, sucking capital out of commodity currencies like the AUD due to two main triggers:
- 🔸Tech Sell-off: Global equity markets are experiencing a massive sell-off led by the collapse of tech giants.
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✅ AUD/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday H4)
Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, AUD/USD is testing a critical psychological support base to determine the sustainability of the macro downtrend:
- 🔸Test of the 0.6900 Level: The Aussie is currently right on the threshold of the 0.6900 round number. Institutional bears are awaiting confirmation of a clean daily close below this level to pave the way for further declines.
- 🔸Pullback Structure: The current downward movement confirms the continuation of a valid extended pullback since AUD/USD hit a near four-year high around 0.7275 last month. The path of least resistance is purely downward.
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