Market Context
Gold remains under pressure as the U.S. dollar firms and Treasury yields stay elevated ahead of the September FOMC Minutes. Markets have reduced expectations for an October hike, but December tightening expectations remain relatively high, keeping the macro backdrop restrictive for non-yielding Gold. Oil prices near $100 also keep inflation and rate expectations in focus.
SMC View
The H1 structure remains bearish. Price rejected the Premium POI around 4,175–4,180 and subsequently broke the internal bullish structure with clear bearish displacement.
Price is now trading below the Bullish FVG, which weakens the short-term recovery structure. The Dynamic Bearish Resistance continues to cap upside attempts, while the next meaningful downside objective is the H1 Demand zone.
Main Trading Scenario
Sell Priority: 4,140–4,155 Bullish FVG
A corrective retracement into the FVG followed by bearish rejection and lower-timeframe confirmation would keep the bearish delivery toward 4,105–4,115 H1 Demand as the primary scenario.
Invalidation comes from sustained acceptance back above the 4,175–4,180 Premium POI.
Key Zones to Watch
- 4,175–4,180 — Premium POI / Dynamic Bearish Resistance
- 4,185–4,218 — HTF Bearish OB
- 4,140–4,155 — Bullish FVG / retracement zone
- 4,105–4,115 — H1 Demand / downside objective
Prime Gold View
The bearish structure remains dominant while price stays below the Premium POI and Dynamic Bearish Resistance. The cleaner path is corrective repricing into the FVG followed by continuation toward H1 Demand, with the FOMC Minutes capable of increasing volatility around the structure.
No confirmation, no trade.
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