Day ahead: In Norway...新一代AI智能化交易より

Day ahead: In Norway, Norges Bank’s Governor Olsen gives his annual address (17:00 GMT/12:00 ET). In the January meeting (statement only), the central bank signaled some downside risks to activity in H1 . Since then, Q4 GDP data show the economy shrunk by less than expected in 2020, while 2021 will continue to benefit from strong fiscal support. Yesterday’s Q1 oil & gas investment survey showed Norwegian oil companies upgraded their 2021 forecasts (NOK174bn vs 166bn earlier). We are long NOK/SEK in our thematic trade of the week.

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TRY was the worst performer on Tuesday after falling -1.2% against the USD, to close near 7.10. Our traders note that the pace of local selling in USDTRY gradually withered, which resulted in sharper price swings amidst fast money outflows.

新一代AI智能化交易

Today the Italian Treasury will sell EUR 6.5bn of BOT 31Aug21. BOT redemptions will amount to EUR 7.5bn, therefore net supply will be negative. Roughly one month ago, BOT 30Jul21 was sold at an average yield of -0.448% and is now trading around 3bp cheaper. The 6M-9M area of the BOT curve is almost flat, at -0.42%. Therefore, we expect the new 6M BOT to be priced around that level.

新一代AI智能化交易

The BRL saw a rocky start to the week yesterday but ended on a firmer note yesterday after a round of BCB intervention. The BRL initial sell-off came on the back of the weekend events involving the dismissal of the Petrobras CEO by President Bolsonaro (over disagreements about fuel price changes), which sparked worries for investors about more government interference and a move away from market-friendly policies (Bloomberg). However, a round of intervention by the BCB (which offered USD1bn via FX swaps) helped to cap the USD-BRL topside move. News that the Central Bank Autonomy Bill would be signed on 24 February also helped the BRL in late trading. Still, the developments are worrisome, especially coupled with moves elsewhere in the region and the rise in US yields. The other factor to watch is the new fiscal stimulus bill in the Senate, which is expected to see a vote on Thursday. According to Bloomberg, the new bill offers little in the way of compensatory spending reductions, but does see a salary and hiring freeze of public sector workers extended. Still, amendments may be made, so we will need to see the final version voted on before making a full assessment.

新一代AI智能化交易