Morning traders, it'...Smart Jet より

Morning traders, it's an exciting day with PCE and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium which both have the potential to be market movers The communication from the FED recently has been quite hawkish, if Powell keeps the hawkish tune then we get another leg of USD strength, if not we just get a temporary pullback, what do we think? Powell has his chance to correct some of the dovish market pricings that have run too far too fast, it's not in the FED's interest for the markets' to expect rate cuts as soon as next year thus he should correct those expectations with some hawkish comments, just hawkish enough to keep the Dollar trend intact, but obviously, we stay open minded and adaptive to other scenarios too

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Morning traders, with the CPI everywhere I look I see notes about the likelihood of a strong print, Goldmans is also expecting a number a tiny bit above expectations so we are geared in that direction but obviously when the consensus is geared one way the risk is that the number doesn't meet the already high expectations triggering an unwind of positions So, even if the likelihood is USD strength we don't want to get into the event too long the Dollar, meaning that we will likely adjust the recently added AUDUSD short before the CPI later, then once we see the numbers and the price action around it we can start looking at some medium term direction across the board

Smart Jet

Morning traders, RBA hiked 25bps overnight which was a move not priced in, and that's an interesting development, mainly because it offers us an insight into what central banks might be thinking, you know, if the RBA is overextending on its tightening then other central banks might find themselves in a similar situation, sure the context around the RBA and FED is different but still, the RBA just opened the door for the possibility of central banks doing MORE than what's currently expected With that said, this is not something that we can take action on short term but it whispers that it is time to be careful with risk assets again, more tightening not just from the FED but from other central banks too will put more pressure on the economy globally which will weigh on risk, so in this context I continue to like the Dollar

Smart Jet

Morning traders, it's a bank holiday today in Europe so it's a quiet start to the week but currently as I'm watching the charts I feel it might be the right technical moment to jump into EURUSD shorts over the next couple of sessions, yes, Friday looks a lot like classic month end flows and those usually always fade as the new month starts, so we might enter the trade over the next couple of sessions Other than that, we have pending order to short AUDUSD from 0.68000 target at 0.62000 stop at 0.68400, will be back with the latest from Goldmans in a minute

Smart Jet