FPG ：Gold has experienced a three-day continuous increase in its price, while oil prices have once again surpassed the $90 mark. This may be attributed to various factors affecting these commodity markets. The recent news reflects a complex situation: 1. Gold prices and long-end U.S. bond yields have risen in response to the intensifying conflict in Gaza. The increase in prices and yields suggests growing concerns over the situation's impact. 2. The attack on the "Ahri Arab Hospital" in Gaza has raised alarm worldwide, and there are worries that the conflict could trigger a fourth oil crisis, despite ongoing bearish factors. 3. In the U.S., the number of initial unemployment claims remains low, which is a positive sign. However, the recent increase in announced layoffs indicates potential changes in the trend of declining unemployment claims. These events demonstrate a dynamic and challenging economic and geopolitical landscape. The recent financial events highlight some significant trends: 1. The Bank of Japan is planning to purchase 300 billion yen of Japanese treasury bonds with a remaining term of 5-10 years, along with 100 billion yen of bonds with a remaining term of 10-25 years. This action reflects the pressure caused by rising U.S. Treasury bond interest rates. 2. The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds has reached a new high, driven by factors such as expectations of rising long-term general accounts and increasing financial risks. 3. In the U.S., the average value of 30-year fixed-rate mortgage payments has surpassed 8%, signaling that the real estate market, particularly the ordinary residential sector, is experiencing significant challenges. Luxury real estate markets appear to be less affected. King from FPG notes that a decline in U.S. stocks is expected as the U.S. Treasury Department issues large-scale bonds, leading to a drop in the U.S. credit cycle. Short-term drivers include the escalating conflict in the Middle East, causing rising demand for gold. In the medium term, he anticipates an upward trend for gold as the U.S. unemployment rate enters an upward channel, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes approach their conclusion, and the target price for gold by year-end is $2,000-2,200. Dawson Dawson, also from FPG, highlights the favorable factor for gold in the short term as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict increases risk aversion, benefiting gold prices. Short-term corrections in gold were due to the strengthening U.S. bond yields and expectations of hawkish Federal Reserve policies. In the long run, high interest rates may exceed expectations and create short-term supply-demand imbalances in U.S. debt. Dave, another FPG analyst, underscores that geopolitical tensions provide a risk premium for crude oil. Recent attacks in Gaza and Iran's call for a ban on crude oil exports to Israel have raised oil prices. The EIA weekly report revealed a larger-than-expected decline in crude oil and refined oil inventories, supporting upward oil price trends. The progress of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will remain a key factor influencing oil prices. Yue Lin, a special analyst at FPG, mentions that recent U.S. unemployment data suggests a tight labor market. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated the need to slow economic growth to address excessive inflation, causing a broad decline in U.S. stocks, with the Dow falling over 250 points, the Nasdaq dropping more than 120 points, and the S&P losing nearly 40 points. Following their recent performance, Netflix and Tesla saw significant price swings, with Netflix rising by 16% and Tesla declining by 9%. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex