Metals – Gold hits f...Koala EA より

02 Apr 2024, 13:40 · Views 1,022

Metals – Gold hits fresh record highs Gold's upward rally continues with spot prices reaching a record high of US$2,265.73/oz yesterday following inflation data from the US late last week. However, stronger-than-expected US factory data for March dampened the rally in gold as the trading session progressed. The unexpected expansion in factory activity would have called into question the market’s expectation for the Fed to start cutting rates in June. We are likely to see further volatility in gold this week, particularly with the US jobs report scheduled for later this week. Gold remains in overbought territory and so there is certainly the potential for a pullback in the short term, particularly if we get a strong jobs report on Friday. Meanwhile, ETF holdings in gold continue to not align with price action. ETF holdings continue to decline with them standing at around 82moz, down from 85.6moz at the start of the year. Over the same time period, spot gold prices are up around 9%. There is plenty of room for investors to buy the gold market, but maybe we need to wait for the Fed to actually start cutting rates before investors jump fully into the market.

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Koala EA

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GBP: A modest dovish shift by the BoE The Bank of England opted for a more dovish than expected communication yesterday. Despite keeping its guidance unchanged (rates to be restrictive for an extended period of time), the two most hawkish members changed their vote from a hike to a hold, and there was a mention in the minutes that rates can still be restrictive even with rate cuts. All this isn’t hugely surprising, after all the real policy rate has continued to inch higher with inflation declining. Still, markets are largely reading this as an acknowledgement that cuts aren’t too far away, and now increasingly convinced the BoE will start easing in June (20bp priced in), along with starting to speculate on a May move (7bp priced in). Our economics team has maintained its call for cuts to start in August, but June is not an unreasonable expectation. The softness in GBP is something that we had expected given we have long been more dovish than markets on the BoE, but might have come a bit earlier than what we have anticipated. EUR/GBP may struggle to find much more support above 0.8600 as UK data still has to validate the recent repricing of the Sonia curve.

Koala EA

USD holds onto gains as focus moves back to relative rates The USD is holding onto the gains made in the second half of last week, but with a rather quiet calendar ahead. In a holiday-distorted week, the only real nuggets of interest are likely to be the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE deflator, and comments from Fed Chair Powell. Both come on Friday when the US equity market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday. We expect the headline rate to nudge up to 2.5% YoY in February from 2.4%, and for the core rate to remain at 2.8%. There is a lot of other data, but mostly second-tier in nature, centring on housing sector data and the final estimate of Q4 GDP. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate for Q1 is running at a still healthy 2.1%. It is questionable how much Chair Powell’s observations on the economy can change in the space of a week, but markets will be curious what others on the FOMC think. On Friday, the Fed’s Bostic said he now looks for one rather than two cuts in 2024. For much of the year so far, G10 exchange rates were driven exclusively by the Fed. For example, EURUSD tracked US rate expectations closer than it did the expected rate differential. That may now be changing, with a renewed focus on relative rates. The surprise cut by the SNB was a catalyst, as was the dovish vote outcome at the BoE last week. Even hawks at the ECB are keen to stress the likelihood of a June rate cut. Of course, not all policy action outside of the US has pointed to currency weakness. Japan’s MoF stepped up its verbal intervention on the JPY. These actions outside of the US have feedback loops onto the USD. On balance, we expect them to keep the USD towards the strong end of its range but may be insufficient to prompt a breakout.

Koala EA

美元: 守住涨势，焦点重回相对利率美元守住了上周后半段的涨幅，但是未来的日历相当平静。在这个被假日干扰的一周里，唯一真正值得关注的美联储首选的通胀指标--PCE 平减指数，以及美联储主席鲍威尔的评论。这两件事都将在周五发生，届时美国股市将因耶稣受难日假期休市。我们预计 2 月份的整体通胀率将从 2.4% 微升至 2.5%。今年大部分时间，G10 汇率完全由美联储驱动。例如，欧元兑美元对美国利率预期的追踪比对预期利率差的追踪更为密切。现在，随着人们重新关注相对利率，这种情况可能正在发生变化。瑞士央行的意外降息是一个催化剂，英国央行上周的鸽派投票结果也是如此。就连欧洲央行的鹰派也热衷于强调 6 月降息的可能性。当然，并非美国以外的所有政策行动都指向货币疲软。日本日本外务省加强了对日元的口头干预。这些美国以外的行动会对美元产生反馈作用。总的来说，我们预计这些行动将使美元保持在强势区间的一端，但可能不足以促使美元突破。

Koala EA

瑞郎：瑞士国家银行降息为瑞郎进一步走软铺平道路昨天，瑞士国家银行意外降息 25 个基点，令瑞郎遭受重创。昨天市场对降息概率的定价约为三分之一，这一决定导致瑞郎曲线出现更广泛的重新定价。6 月份连续 25 个基点的降息几乎已被完全定价（21 个基点），市场预计年底前还会有一次降息。我们的经济学家认为，6 月和 9 月的降息现在看来很有可能。这将使瑞士的政策利率回到 1.0%，而另一次降息则有可能将其降至 0.75%。欧元与瑞士法郎的利率差--欧元/瑞士法郎的关键驱动因素--将在短期内对欧元/瑞士法郎形成支撑。我们怀疑市场对欧洲央行今年超过 75 个基点宽松政策的定价是错误的，而瑞士央行的利率预期可能面临进一步的鸽派重新定价。至关重要的是，瑞士央行的政策声明两次提到了法郎的实际价值，这意味着外汇干预工具现在可以用来削弱法郎。现在欧元/瑞郎的走势可能会趋于平静，尤其是市场可能倾向于为欧洲央行的更多减息定价，但抛售该货币对的反弹仍有风险，逐步攀升至平价是更有可能的前景。

Koala EA

US inflation quashes the chances of a June Fed rate cut US core consumer price inflation came in at 0.4% month-on-month, above the 0.3% consensus – only one forecaster predicted such an outcome so just like last Friday's jobs report this is another significant upside surprise that should quash expectations of a June Federal Reserve interest rate cut. 15bp of cuts were priced ahead of time, but this has now collapsed to just 5.5bp. We have two more jobs reports and two CPI reports, but to deliver a June cut we would likely need to see payrolls growth drop closer to 100k and both core CPI prints to come in at 0.2% MoM – the latter of which is on the day of that 12 June FOMC meeting. The details show the 0.4% MoM core increase was 0.359% to three decimal places so we weren't a huge distance away from 0.3%, but this is still far too hot for the Fed. We need to ideally hit 0.17% MoM each month to bring us down to 2% year-on-year over time, so we are still running at double the pace we need to be at. The strength was caused by the supercore services (services ex energy, ex housing), which rose 0.65% MoM with medical care services jumping 0.6% MoM and transport services increasing 1.5% MoM (led by a 1.7% jump in maintenance and a 2.6%MoM/22.2%YoY increase in vehicle insurance). The cost of shelter rose 0.4% while a 1.1% increase in energy costs and a 0.1% increase in food meant headline inflation also rose 0.4% MoM (0.378% to three decimal places). There was better news for car buyers with new and used vehicle prices both falling while recreation prices and airline fares both fell for the first time since November. Given this situation a June rate cut is not happening, barring a rapid reversal of fortunes for the economy. July is also doubtful, meaning September is the more probable start point of any easing, which would limit the Fed to a maximum of just three rate cuts this year.

Koala EA