KVB | Market Analysis: EUR/USD
Fundamental Analysis:
The Euro continues its upward trend against the US Dollar, reaching a new high for the year at 1.1170. This momentum is driven by a weakening US Dollar as investors anticipate potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. Despite this, the long-term outlook suggests the US economy may outperform Europe, potentially capping further Euro gains. Key market events to watch this week include flash PMIs, a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, and testimony from Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda.
Technical Analysis:
The Euro is expected to continue its rise, possibly reaching the 2024 high of 1.1173, then 1.1200, and the 2023 peak of 1.1275. However, caution is advised if the pair drops below the critical 200-day moving average at 1.0845. Immediate support is at 1.1005 (55-SMA), followed by 1.0949 and 1.0881. The technical indicators show a strong positive bias with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 83.
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