🌅 Morning Update | ...NORDFX Global より

18 Jun 2025, 15:09 · Views 89

🌅 Morning Update | 18.06.2025 📈 US indices edge higher, recouping yesterday’s losses, even as oil 🛢️ stays firm above $76 amid ongoing Middle East tensions. European futures point to a positive open, but overall volatility in global equities remains moderate. 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, as expected. Nikkei 225 futures jumped +1.5%, while USD/JPY slipped 0.2%. 📉 Gold dipped 0.05% to $3,386/oz, while bitcoin ₿ bounced back above $105.5k, recovering from yesterday’s fall to $103.9k. Crypto sentiment remains cautious, reflecting investor unease. 📰 The New York Times reports that Iran has prepared missiles and other military assets to strike US bases if Donald Trump escalates involvement. Meanwhile, VIX futures dropped 0.8%, hinting at slightly calmer market nerves. 💥 The main stress point today is oil, which has rebounded to its highest level since January. 📌 Key events to watch today: 🔹 US Jobless Claims Report at 12:30 PM GMT — figures above 250k could spark risk-off mood on Wall Street. 🔹 Fed Decision at 6 PM GMT and Jerome Powell’s press conference at 6:30 PM GMT — markets eye fresh clues on the policy outlook. #MorningUpdate #MarketNews #Forex #Crypto #Oil #Gold #Fed

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📊 NordFX Morning Update – July 8, 2026 🌏 Asian session: Nikkei 225 flat near 68,220 after Tuesday's 2.1% tech-driven slide. Kospi extends losses, down 2.9% to 7,435 on AI-valuation jitters. Greater China outperforms. 🛢️ Oil: Brent surges 2.6% to $76.09 after US strikes on Iran; WTI at $72.25. 💵 USD/JPY: Near 40-year highs at 162.43, yen still under pressure despite intervention warnings from Tokyo. 💶 EUR/USD: Steady around 1.1414 in quiet Asian trade. 🥇 Gold: Holding near $4,100, soft on firmer dollar and profit-taking. 🏦 Central banks: FOMC minutes due today; RBNZ decision also today, ~72% odds of a hike from 2.25%. ⚠️ Volatility elevated – geopolitical risk in focus.

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📣 Speak Forex with NordFX: "Fade the Move" Ever watched a price rocket straight up and thought, "Nah, that's gotta come back down… right? RIGHT?" — congrats, you've just discovered fading. Fade the move = betting against the current trend because you think it's overextended, exhausted, or basically running on fumes. It's the trading equivalent of watching someone sprint at the start of a marathon and going, "Sure, buddy, let's see how that holds up at mile 20." Fading works great when a move is genuinely overdone and about to snap back. It works terribly when the market says "hold my coffee" and keeps running anyway — which is why fading is often called "catching a falling knife" by people who caught said knife blade-first. 🔪 ⚖️ The golden rule of fading: confidence is good, but a stop-loss is your best friend. The market doesn't care how sure you are. So next time someone says they're "fading the pump," you'll know: they're not tired, they're just contrarian. 👉 Ready to test your own fade (or follow the trend, we don't judge)? Open your account with NordFX here: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... #SpeakForex #NordFX #TradingTerms #FadeTheMove

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📢 Crypto Weekly Digest: June 24 – July 1 📉 🔴 Bitcoin had one of its roughest weeks of the year, sliding under $59,000–$60,000, its lowest level since late 2024, and closing out June as the worst month of the entire 2026 correction. It's down over 5% on the week alone and nearly $19K off its May peak near $77,600. 🔴 Ethereum wasn't spared either, dipping toward $1,570–$1,620 as spot ETFs bled tens of millions in outflows, with capital rotating into stablecoins and rivals. 🟢 Not everyone lost. Solana and Hyperliquid bucked the trend, posting solid weekly gains while the rest of the top 10 stayed red. 😨 The Fear & Greed Index hit an all-time cycle low of 12 (Extreme Fear) before ticking up slightly to 15. 🏛️ Politics got tangled with crypto again: Trump refused to sign the housing bill carrying a CBDC ban through 2030, holding it hostage until Congress passes his separate voter-ID "SAVE Act." ⚖️ Meanwhile the industry's big prize, the CLARITY Act (crypto market structure law), is stuck in the Senate needing 7 Democratic votes before the August recess. Its fate could shape US crypto rules for years. 🇪🇺 In Europe, MiCA's transition period expired July 1, forcing unlicensed exchanges to wind down, with Binance racing to secure a new EU license. 🕵️ A darker headline: reports surfaced of a China based exchange allegedly used to launder billions in sanctioned Iranian and North Korean funds. ⛏️ Fun fact: even as prices crashed to 20 month lows, Bitcoin's mining difficulty just hit an all time record high. Miners are working harder than ever, betting on the network even in the depths of a bear market! 💪 Stay sharp and trade smart! 🚀

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PCE and GDP Day: What Growth and Inflation Together Tell Forex Traders | NordFX Today the US drops two heavyweight reports back to back: the third estimate of Q1 2026 GDP and the May Personal Income and Outlays report, home to the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE. 📊 GDP growth was already revised down to 1.6% annualized in the second estimate, from 2.0% at the advance reading, on weaker consumer spending and investment. Since consumption drives nearly 70% of GDP, today's number is a real time read on how stretched US households are. Inflation has been climbing, not cooling. April's PCE ran 3.8% year over year, core at 3.3%, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Economists expect May's print to push higher, toward roughly 4.1% headline, the hottest since 2023, driven largely by the oil shock from the Israel Iran war that began in late February. 🛢️ There is a silver lining: crude has dropped sharply this week, with WTI near $70 and Brent near $73.50, the lowest since the war started, as ceasefire talks edge forward, though still fragile, with flashpoints in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz. A cooler May reading would ease pressure on the Fed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in his first meeting on June 17, a fourth straight hold, but dropped dovish forward guidance. Half the committee now sees a hike by year end, and futures markets price roughly 70% odds of one by September. 🏦 That tension is exactly why today matters for FX. A hot PCE plus solid GDP would push the dollar, already near a one year high, even further, with EUR/USD pinned near 1.136 and gold sliding toward $4,000. A cooler surprise could spark a relief rally in EUR, GBP and gold, especially with sterling already weak on UK political turmoil. Expect a volatile session either way. ⚡ Open your NordFX account: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... 🚀

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FOMC Minutes vs July Fed: What Changed After Warsh's First SEP? | NordFX Market Insight The Fed just showed its cards, and traders did not love the hand. 🎯 On July 8, the Fed released minutes from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair (June 16 to 17). Rate held at 3.50% to 3.75%, unanimous vote, but the tone underneath was pure hawk. Wording: Warsh cut the statement to just 130 words and dropped the old easing bias entirely. The minutes confirm it was deliberate: a few members already saw a case for hiking in June, they simply chose to wait. Dots: 18 of 19 officials submitted 2026 projections. Nine leaned toward a hike, eight saw no change, one still expected a cut. Median year end rate rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Warsh submitted no dot at all, staying deliberately data dependent. That silence is now the market's biggest wildcard into September. 🧩 Inflation risk: Core PCE was revised up to 3.3% for 2026 from 2.7%. Most participants flagged upside risk from AI investment, tariffs, and Middle East tensions. GDP growth trimmed to 2.2%. Labour tolerance: June payrolls came in at just 57K, the weakest in four months, with April and May revised down a combined 74K. The minutes still call conditions stable, but that gap between hawkish talk and a cooling jobs market is exactly what's driving repricing now. Markets: dollar firmer since June, gold pulling back to the 4,150 to 4,175 zone before stabilizing. CME FedWatch leans toward a hold on July 28 to 29, but September stays a coin flip. Add Middle East risk keeping oil bid, and volatility isn't fading soon. ⚡ Bottom line: a Fed that talks less means every data point until September carries more weight. CPI on July 14 is the next big trigger. Trade the volatility with tighter spreads and faster execution. 🚀 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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