FOMC Minutes vs July Fed: What Changed After Warsh's First SEP? | NordFX Market Insight
The Fed just showed its cards, and traders did not love the hand. 🎯
On July 8, the Fed released minutes from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair (June 16 to 17). Rate held at 3.50% to 3.75%, unanimous vote, but the tone underneath was pure hawk.
Wording: Warsh cut the statement to just 130 words and dropped the old easing bias entirely. The minutes confirm it was deliberate: a few members already saw a case for hiking in June, they simply chose to wait.
Dots: 18 of 19 officials submitted 2026 projections. Nine leaned toward a hike, eight saw no change, one still expected a cut. Median year end rate rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Warsh submitted no dot at all, staying deliberately data dependent. That silence is now the market's biggest wildcard into September. 🧩
Inflation risk: Core PCE was revised up to 3.3% for 2026 from 2.7%. Most participants flagged upside risk from AI investment, tariffs, and Middle East tensions. GDP growth trimmed to 2.2%.
Labour tolerance: June payrolls came in at just 57K, the weakest in four months, with April and May revised down a combined 74K. The minutes still call conditions stable, but that gap between hawkish talk and a cooling jobs market is exactly what's driving repricing now.
Markets: dollar firmer since June, gold pulling back to the 4,150 to 4,175 zone before stabilizing. CME FedWatch leans toward a hold on July 28 to 29, but September stays a coin flip. Add Middle East risk keeping oil bid, and volatility isn't fading soon. ⚡
Bottom line: a Fed that talks less means every data point until September carries more weight. CPI on July 14 is the next big trigger.
Trade the volatility with tighter spreads and faster execution. 🚀
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