๐ก๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต: ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ก๐๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฌ๐ผ๐ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ผ๐ ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ข๐ป๐ฒ ๐ ๐ผ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฟ๐
๐ July's US inflation print looked sleepy. Headline CPI up just 0.1% month over month, 3.4% year over year. Core CPI eased to 2.5%. Traders exhaled, rate cut hopes stayed alive.
๐ญ Nice story. Not the whole story.
Buried inside July's producer price data was a very different signal: core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) jumped 0.4%, four times June's pace, powered by a 6.5% spike in portfolio management fees. That exact line item feeds straight into core PCE, the number the Fed actually watches. Not CPI.
๐
Mark it: August 26. That's when July's core PCE drops, and June's reading was already stuck at 3.3% for months. If the PPI heat carries through, everyone positioned for a quiet drift into September's Fed decision could get a rude wake up call. โก
๐ Layer on Middle East linked energy swings and a Fed that split 9 to 3 on its last vote, and "quiet summer" is not the phrase we'd use for late August.
๐ก Bottom line: the number that trends isn't always the number that moves. Smart traders read past the headline.
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